Middle East Conflict: Ongoing Impact on Global Freight and Supply Chains
Update: March 2nd, 2026
Escalating military tensions in the Middle East are disrupting global air and ocean freight networks. The situation remains fluid, with operational conditions changing rapidly across both aviation and maritime sectors.
While there is no universal shutdown of global transport corridors, several critical trade routes and transit hubs are operating under heightened security conditions, creating delays, rerouting, and cost pressures across international supply chains.
Air Freight: Airspace Restrictions and Capacity Constraints
Airspace across parts of the Gulf region and surrounding countries remains restricted or subject to sudden closure depending on security developments.
Countries directly impacted include Iran, Israel, Iraq, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates.
Major regional hubs such as Dubai International Airport and Hamad International Airport have experienced varying levels of operational disruption, including flight cancellations, diversions, and schedule adjustments.
For air cargo, this is resulting in:
- Rerouted flights avoiding restricted airspace
- Increased transit times on Asia–Europe and Asia–Middle East corridors
- Reduced bellyhold capacity due to passenger flight suspensions
- Higher charter demand
- Upward pressure on freight rates and war-risk surcharges
Capacity remains available, but scheduling volatility is high, and changes can occur with limited notice.
Ocean Freight: Elevated Risk Around Key Maritime Corridors
Security concerns are also affecting maritime operations, particularly near strategic waterways.
We have received reports that several ocean carriers have announced service disruptions following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to security concerns.
This waterway is one of the most critical global trade gateways, linking the Gulf region to international shipping lanes. With transits currently suspended, vessels are holding position, delaying departure, or reassessing routing options.
Similarly, routes through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal are under close review by carriers. Depending on risk assessments, certain services may be adjusted or diverted.
Potential impacts to ocean freight include:
- Immediate sailing delays and blank sailings
- Vessel diversions where feasible
- Revised service rotations across Asia–Europe and intra-Gulf trades
- Increased bunker and war-risk insurance costs
- Vessel bunching and potential port congestion once movements resume
- Equipment imbalances if disruptions continue
At present, global shipping lanes remain operational, but the risk environment has intensified.
Broader Supply Chain Implications
Even shipments not directly destined for the Middle East may experience knock-on effects:
- Tightened air freight capacity on alternative routing corridors
- Increased freight rate volatility
- Longer planning cycles due to uncertainty
- Insurance reviews for cargo transiting higher-risk areas
If tensions persist, these pressures could continue into the coming weeks.
Outlook
The trajectory of disruption will depend on regional developments in the coming days.
Possible short-term scenarios include:
- Gradual stabilisation, allowing phased reopening of restricted airspace.
- Sustained operational volatility, with continued rerouting and elevated costs.
- Further escalation, which could expand restrictions and deepen supply chain impact.
At this stage, conditions remain dynamic, and operational guidance may change quickly.
Our Commitment
We are monitoring carrier advisories, aviation authorities, port conditions, and security updates daily. Our teams are actively working with airline and ocean partners to identify the most stable routing options available.
We recommend that importers and exporters:
- Allow additional buffer time in transit planning
- Review time-sensitive cargo movements
- Consider alternative routing where feasible
- Plan for potential short-term cost adjustments
We will continue to provide timely updates as the situation develops.
For shipment-specific guidance or contingency planning, please contact our team directly.