Asia-Pacific Airfreight Realigns Amid U.S. Tariff Shifts and De Minimis Policy Changes

Ongoing shifts in U.S. trade policy are significantly impacting airfreight flows between Asia and the U.S., including China. Exporters and logistics providers are adjusting their strategies in response to evolving tariffs and De Minimis regulations affecting airfreight operations.

China-U.S. Airfreight Demand Declines Post-De Minimis Policy Termination

Following the termination of the duty-free de minimis exemption for low-value shipments from China and Hong Kong on May 2, 2025, airfreight capacity between China and the U.S. has dropped nearly 30%. This policy change has particularly affected e-commerce platforms which rely heavily on air cargo for direct-to-consumer deliveries.

Although a temporary 90-day tariff reduction deal between the U.S. and China has been implemented, lowering tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, the long-term outlook remains uncertain. Major freight operators are adjusting their strategies, including redeploying freighters to other markets such as Latin America.

Surge in Southeast Asia Airfreight Demand Ahead of Imminent U.S. Tariffs

In contrast, Southeast Asia is experiencing a sharp increase in air cargo demand as exporters expedite shipments to the U.S. before additional tariffs take effect on July 9. The situation highlights the importance of airfreight connectivity between Asia and the U.S., including impacts from De Minimis changes. Countries like Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia have seen a surge in bookings, leading to strained capacity and higher airfreight rates. Logistics providers report tightening space availability across Southeast Asian gateways, with some lanes experiencing transit delays and early peak-season pricing levels.

Thailand is actively seeking to establish a fair trade relationship with the U.S., aiming to avert a potential 36% tariff scheduled for July. The Thai government has proposed measures to improve U.S. market access and prevent transshipment violations amid the changing airfreight landscape.

Strategic Recommendations for Shippers Amid Ongoing Volatility

Given the current volatility in trade policies and airfreight demand, Future Forwarding advises shippers to:

• Book Early: Secure space in advance to navigate capacity constraints, especially from Southeast Asia.
• Explore Alternate Routings: Consider alternative shipping routes to mitigate delays and cost increases.
• Monitor Tariff Developments: Stay informed on policy changes to adjust supply chain strategies promptly.

Update: 20 May 2025